Infrastructure & Resources
Who controls and has access to the physical and digital infrastructure that AI depends on — including computing power, energy, data centres, and critical raw materials.
Trajectory
Destabilization and enclosure
Main driver
Energy/water scarcity plus climate stress
Leading actors
Corporations ("tech enclaves"); wealthy states
State in 2040
Chronic instability; poorer regions excluded
In 2040, the high energy and water consumption required by AI infrastructure, combined with accelerated climate change and global population growth, has destabilised supply systems worldwide. This is leading to intense competition for scarce resources and a tense global security situation. Wealthy countries begin to secure their strategic energy independence while poorer regions struggle with critical energy and resource shortages and unstable power grids. A unique role is played by ‘tech enclaves’ under de facto corporate control.