Foresight Scenarios
Explore four possible AI governance futures for 2040 — discover what you can do about it today.
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GROWTH SCENARIO
Technology rivalry instead of collaboration: the race for AI supremacy
China’s AGI supremacy divides blocs; U.S. struggles, Europe stagnates, instability.
By 2040, global power is defined by the U.S.–China technological rivalry, centered on AI. China’s 2035 breakthrough in autonomous scientific AI gave it dominance in energy, pharma, and materials, while the U.S. relied on market‑driven innovation led by tech giants. The world split into two blocs: America’s corporate‑driven model and China’s centralized state system. Europe stagnated under strict regulation, fragmenting politically and economically. Military tensions escalated after China annexed Taiwan in 2036, securing semiconductor control. In 2039, China achieved AGI through quantum computing, cementing supremacy and forcing nations to align, deepening global divisions and instability.
COLLAPSE SCENARIO
Privileges and regression: AI as an instrument of geopolitical control
AI oligopolies dominate governance, resources scarce, conflicts escalate, decentralization rises.
By 2040, AI’s vast energy and water demands, combined with climate change and population growth, destabilize global supply systems, sparking fierce competition for resources. Tech giants dominate AI infrastructure, reducing governments to dependent clients and embedding algorithms into policymaking, weakening democratic oversight. Corruption emerges as corporations manipulate data to influence parliaments and courts. International bodies lose relevance, while the World Economic Forum becomes the central governance hub. Military AI use escalates conflicts, authoritarian regimes exploit AI for control, and data becomes the most valuable commodity. A wild card arises: decentralized, open‑source AI movements challenge corporate dominance, fostering technological diversity and renewed cooperation.
Discipline SCENARIO
Uniformity and stability: strict rules, controlled progress
China leads strict AI regulation; CipherNet rebels with open‑source.
By 2040, global AI governance is dominated by China’s strict regulatory framework, which balances controlled innovation with surveillance and political influence. Following U.S. deregulation in the 2020s, China expanded its sphere of influence across the Global South and Russia, embedding dependencies through subsidized AI solutions and market access. International bodies like the OECD and UN became heavily shaped by Chinese interests, while the EU pursued pragmatic cooperation despite internal divisions. The GTAA and the 2039 AI Control Treaty institutionalized global regulation, slowing innovation but ensuring safety. Meanwhile, underground networks like CipherNet challenge centralized control with open‑source AI.
TRANSFORMATION SCENARIO
Collective identity and experience: an AI order for the common good
Self‑Explaining AI democratizes governance, challenges dominance, fosters global cooperation.
By 2040, Self‑Explaining AI transforms governance by making complex decisions transparent, contextual, and accessible to citizens. Originating as an open‑source project from India, Brazil, and South Africa in 2035, it empowers smaller nations and civil society, challenging U.S. and Chinese dominance. The Global AI Governance Forum (GAIGF) emerges as a UN multi‑stakeholder body, balancing diverse interests while promoting inclusivity. Citizens actively shape standards through interactive participation, and AI becomes a public good in many regions. Despite risks of authoritarian misuse and disinformation, Self‑Explaining AI fosters democratization, sustainability, and equitable access, reshaping political dynamics and global cooperation.
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