Privileges and regression: AI as an instrument of geopolitical control

AI oligopolies dominate governance, resources scarce, conflicts escalate, decentralization rises.

In 2040, the high energy and water consumption required by AI infrastructure, combined with accelerated climate change and global population growth, has destabilised supply systems worldwide. This is leading to intense competition for scarce resources and a tense global security situation.

The economy and society are highly dependent on AI technologies, the development and use of which are controlled by a corporate oligopoly. Smaller companies, and above all governments, are increasingly reliant on the technologies of these tech giants since they have outsourced a large part of the public digital infrastructure to these corporations in a bid to maintain their competitiveness. As a result, technology companies now control essential AI services for business and administration. States are faced with a choice: comply with the corporations’ demands or risk being cut off from these services. The situation is exacerbated by the direct integration of algorithmic processes into policymaking. This makes democratic control more difficult as algorithms are increasingly being used in legislative processes, influencing the design and prioritisation of legislative proposals. Because of their economic and military dependence on the major technology companies, the majority of states and their populations tolerate this state of affairs. In the face of economic crises, some countries are going even further and concluding bilateral agreements with the tech giants in order to secure privileged access to AI technology in return for additional concessions. The first cases of corruption become public in 2040. They involve tech companies using the targeted manipulation of data to influence the AI systems of network agencies, parliaments and judicial systems.

In this context, lobbyists’ approaches to stricter AI regulation are usually nipped in the bud or remain at best a symbolic attempt at state control. Many policymakers move directly from government offices to the boardrooms of big tech companies. International organisations such as the UN and OECD have largely lost their former role in AI governance, as they proved incapable of keeping up with the pace of innovation and economic dominance of the corporations. Their function is now limited to a largely symbolic advisory role without any actual power of enforcement. The EU, which played a pioneering role in the 2020s with ambitious AI regulations, has been increasingly weakened by political fragmentation and economic pressure from corporations.

The collapse of effective multilateral cooperation was accelerated by escalating international disputes over water and energy. As a result, wealthy countries began to secure their strategic energy independence, while poorer regions are now struggling with critical energy and resource shortages and unstable power grids. The development of proprietary AI systems and regulatory approaches cannot be implemented in these poorer regions. A unique role is played by ‘tech enclaves’, territories under the de facto control of large tech corporations that are also striving for energy sovereignty in these areas.

The uncontrolled use of military AI has contributed to a destabilisation of the global order. AI-supported weapons systems developed by the leading technology companies are not only used by governments, but also by nongovernmental actors and military splinter groups. An arms race is under way as states fear being overtaken by geopolitical rivals and losing access to resources. The lack of enforceable international AI control mechanisms is contributing to the escalation of military conflicts and further undermining global security. In authoritarian states, AI is used specifically to suppress the opposition and mould social structures in line with the vision of those in power.

Alongside energy and water, data is the most valuable commodity. States and companies collect biometric, financial and social data on a large scale to analyse markets, optimise economic processes and develop new revenue streams. Many companies engage in unofficial data cooperation with governments in order to gain access to otherwise inaccessible information. Data protection has become largely meaningless in this world. Digital identity systems define social life. Citizens receive or lose privileges based on their digital data profiles. Apart from the occasional protest movement, most people have come to terms with this system.

Despite the all-pervasive nature of AI, many technological developments in the civil sector are stagnating. State investments are increasingly being channelled into surveillance systems and military applications. Tech corporations are therefore prioritising the development of AI-supported surveillance and weapons systems in an effort to attract wealthy governments as customers.

In this new order, the World Economic Forum (WEF) has become the central governance platform of the global elite. As a private sector-oriented institution with established networks between corporations and policymakers, the WEF fills the gap left by traditional intergovernmental structures, which were considered too sluggish and ineffective. In 2040, the leading AI powers and tech corporations dominate, cooperating despite their rivalry in order to secure control over global resources. AI governance is no longer a question of sovereign national decision-making or multilateral cooperation – it now follows the interests of a handful of economic and geopolitical power centres and stakeholders.

WILD CARD: The breakaway moment for AI

From 2035 onwards, Iceland, Bhutan, the Maldives and a coalition of African and South American countries start to rely on decentralised, community-based AI systems that use open-source approaches in a resource-efficient way. The movement grows rapidly because the AI systems of large corporations begin increasingly to exhibit weaknesses – not only have they become technically unreliable, but their functionality has been compromised by commercial motives and political influence, leading to distorted results and decisions. The first technology alliances in Western countries are joining the new decentralised AI infrastructure. A wave of technological emancipation movements is leading to states and companies gradually breaking free from the old tech giants. While some regions continue to rely on centralised, increasingly error-prone AI systems, a resilient, parallel digital order is emerging, in which technological power is fragmented and democratised. This marks the start of an era of technological diversity – and possibly the unexpected renaissance of global cooperation.