AI Technology Development
The pace, direction, and control of advances in AI — including breakthroughs, risks, and who benefits from new capabilities.
Trajectory
Stagnation in civil sector
Main driver
Investment shifting to surveillance and weapons
Leading actors
Tech corporations
State in 2040
Surveillance/weapons focus; AGI absent
Despite the all-pervasive nature of AI, many technological developments in the civil sector are stagnating. State investments are increasingly channelled into surveillance systems and military applications. Tech corporations prioritise the development of AI-supported surveillance and weapons systems. The development of AI technologies stagnates; AGI and ASI remain out of reach. Hallucinations and cybersecurity risks worsen as advances in robustness and reliability fail to materialise.