TRANSFORMATION SCENARIO Collective identity and experience: an AI order for the common good
Theme: Military AI & Security

Theme 7 of 9

Military AI & Security

How AI is used in military contexts, arms races, autonomous weapons, and international security – and what governance frameworks exist or are needed to manage these risks.


Trajectory

De-escalation and prohibition

Main driver

Norm against offensive military AI

Leading actors

UN; GAIGF; NGOs

State in 2040

Virtual diplomacy; conflict de-escalation AI

AI-supported systems are increasingly taking on tasks in virtual diplomacy and preventive conflict resolution. Although offensive military AI applications are outlawed internationally, their use is still permitted in areas such as cyber defence, logistics and crisis management. Self-Explaining AI is used to support governments, NGOs and international organisations in developing de-escalating measures in complex international conflicts.


SCENARIO TIMELINE

2025 TREND: State-controlled
2030 TREND: Diplomatic AI use piloted
2035 TREND: Offensive AI outlawed internationally
2040 STATE: Virtual diplomacy; conflict de-escalation AI

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