Geopolitics & Power
How global power is distributed between states, technology companies, and international institutions — and what this means for who controls AI development and governance.
Trajectory
Cooperative multi-stakeholder reform
Main driver
Civil-society pressure; open vs proprietary tensions resolved
Leading actors
GAIGF; global civil society
State in 2040
Multi-stakeholder GAIGF leads governance
The conflicting interests of countries favouring open systems and those relying on proprietary technologies give rise to political tensions. These conflicts, combined with public pressure for greater transparency and participation, culminate in a reform of international AI governance. A new UN multi-stakeholder forum — the Global AI Governance Forum (GAIGF) — now coordinates global AI governance with governments, technology companies, academia and civil society equally represented.