Geopolitics & Power
How global power is distributed between states, technology companies, and international institutions — and what this means for who controls AI development and governance.
Trajectory
Consolidation under Chinese leadership
Main driver
US withdrawal; China filling governance gaps
Leading actors
China; EU (soft power); Global South actors
State in 2040
China leads; US isolated; Global South strategic
Since the second Trump administration, the US has pushed ahead with deregulation of technology and withdrawn from international agreements. China exploits the resulting gaps to expand its technological sphere of influence. In 2040, China has assumed a leading role in global AI governance, enshrining strict but pragmatic regulation. The EU’s global influence has weakened but it maintains soft power through standards and partnerships.