COLLAPSE SCENARIO Privileges and regression: AI as an instrument of geopolitical control
Theme: AI Governance & Regulation

Theme 2 of 9

AI Governance & Regulation

The rules, institutions, and processes that shape how AI is developed, deployed, and held accountable – from national laws to international frameworks and multi-stakeholder agreements.


Trajectory

Collapse into symbolic governance

Main driver

Corporate pace outstripping public institutions; lobbying

Leading actors

WEF; big tech; UN/OECD (symbolic)

State in 2040

No effective governance; WEF dominant

International organisations like the UN and OECD have largely lost their former role in AI governance, proving incapable of keeping up with the pace of innovation and economic dominance of corporations. Their function is limited to a largely symbolic advisory role without enforcement power. Lobbyists’ approaches to stricter AI regulation are usually nipped in the bud, or remain at best a symbolic attempt at state control.


SCENARIO TIMELINE

2025 TREND: Weakening multilateralism
2030 TREND: UN/OECD losing relevance
2035 TREND: Symbolic advisory role only
2040 STATE: No effective governance; WEF dominant

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