Infrastructure & Resources
Who controls and has access to the physical and digital infrastructure that AI depends on — including computing power, energy, data centres, and critical raw materials.
Trajectory
Rising concentration in wealthy states
Main driver
6G/quantum investment; control of chip supply
Leading actors
Wealthy states; China (Taiwan fabs from 2036)
State in 2040
Extreme concentration; energy crisis
Large AI models and computing resources are concentrated primarily in the hands of powerful tech companies and wealthy countries. The rollout of 6G and investment in quantum computing accelerate the development of new frontier AI models. Energy consumption and costs continue to rise. China’s control over a large part of global chip production following its annexation of Taiwan in 2036 gives it a significant competitive advantage.