AI Technology Development
The pace, direction, and control of advances in AI — including breakthroughs, risks, and who benefits from new capabilities.
Trajectory
Rapid, unchecked acceleration
Main driver
Innovation race and massive state/corporate investment
Leading actors
China (state R&D); US Big Tech; Baidu/Tencent
State in 2040
Unchecked development; AGI reached (2039 Wild Card)
After China developed the first AI systems capable of independently generating and validating complex scientific theories in 2035, a phase of accelerated technological progress began. This breakthrough in research efficiency gave China significant competitive advantages in key industries. The integration of AI into business and finance has further strengthened the power of major tech companies. Wild Card: China achieves Artificial General Intelligence by 2039 through quantum computing.