Geopolitics & Power
How global power is distributed between states, technology companies, and international institutions — and what this means for who controls AI development and governance.
Trajectory
Fragmentation into two hardening blocs
Main driver
US-China rivalry and deregulated competition
Leading actors
US & China (states); OECD vs SCO
State in 2040
Entrenched US-China duopoly; EU weakened; UN irrelevant
The global order is shaped by the technological race between the US and China. This rivalry has divided most of the world into two competing blocs. The US bloc is focused on market-driven AI development in which private companies play a central role. In the China bloc, the state pursues a centralised model in which AI is comprehensively integrated into all areas of society. International organisations like the UN become less important as geopolitical fragmentation deepens.